Goldman Sachs Finds AI's $600 Billion Investment Boom Has a Limited Crowding-Out Effect

Goldman Sachs economists Jessica Rindels and David Mericle estimate that U.S. AI investment will reach about $600 billion in 2026, equal to roughly 2% of GDP, while producing a smaller crowding-out effect than prominent warnings imply. Their analysis says the boom is displacing some technology and construction spending and lifting borrowing costs, but the measured drag on the rest of business investment remains modest.