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Polymarket Opens OpenAI-Anthropic Race for the Next Millennium Prize

September 10, 2026 at 00:36 EDT

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Polymarket has opened a market asking whether OpenAI or Anthropic will be first to announce a solution to another qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by Dec. 31, 2027. The contract excludes Navier–Stokes, the problem OpenAI says its internal system solved this week, making the market a bet on the next eligible announcement rather than a verdict on that claim.

September 2026 · OpenAI vs Anthropic

Who reaches another Millennium Prize first?

A new market asks which lab will make the first qualifying solution announcement by Dec. 31, 2027. Navier–Stokes is excluded; five other problems remain in play.

The race at a glance

50%

OpenAI market quote

Eligible problems

10,000

OpenAI concurrent agents

$1M

Prize per problem

A reported OpenAI timeline

The reported search phase took 88 hours; Lean formalization and verification took 17 hours.

88h

Search for a result

17h

Lean formalization

Column height follows the reported hour count.

Why it matters

AI agents can search many mathematical paths in parallel.
Formal artifacts make parts of the reasoning inspectable.

Why the race remains open

Independent mathematical review is still pending.
Credit and research provenance remain contested.

This is an announcement race, not a prize verdict

The market settles on which lab makes the first qualifying claim. It does not itself establish that the mathematics satisfies the Clay prize process.

Scope

Five named problems qualify; Navier–Stokes does not.

Standard

Progress alone does not count; the announcement must say solved.

Tie rule

No qualifying announcement or same-day claims resolve 50–50.

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