Prediction-market traders on Kalshi now put the chance that Anthropic goes public this year at less than 60%, a sharp drop from nearly 90% on the eve of the midterm elections.
Prediction markets · Anthropic IPO odds
Traders cut odds of an Anthropic IPO this year by about 30 points
Prediction-market odds that Anthropic goes public in 2026 have fallen to under 60%, down from nearly 90% before the midterm elections. The move reflects trader expectations, not a company announcement.
~90%
Implied odds of an IPO this year, eve of the midterms
<60%
Implied odds in the latest reading
~30 pts
Approximate drop in market-implied probability
Implied odds of an Anthropic IPO in 2026
Each block is roughly 10 percentage points. Columns drawn to scale.
Nearly 90%
Before midterms
Takeaway: about three blocks, or roughly 30 points, of implied confidence have come out of the 2026 IPO question.
How to read the signal
Market odds signal expectations. They are not a confirmed timetable.
No company statement
The drop is not tied to an official announcement from Anthropic.
No filing or timetable
No regulatory filing or formal listing schedule is available yet.
Thin, volatile prices
Single-company contracts can swing quickly on news or sentiment.
Watch for: an official statement from Anthropic or a verifiable regulatory filing. Either would likely move expectations again.
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