Breaking

Traders Price 85% Chance OpenAI Will Release Astra on September 3

September 2, 2026 at 14:49 EDT

Foundation Models
Security

Prediction-market traders on September 2 assigned about an 85% chance that OpenAI will make its next major model, Astra, available to the public on September 3, a day after the company said it planned to ship the system "soon" following its first Critical cybersecurity designation. OpenAI has not announced a launch date.

September 2, 2026 · OpenAI

Astra priced for a Sept. 3 public launch

Traders assign about 85% odds that OpenAI will make Astra publicly available on September 3, after the company said its first Critical-rated model would ship soon. OpenAI has not named a date.

Implied probability

Where traders put a public Astra release

Sept. 3
85%

Sept. 4
5%

No by Sept. 30
4%

September 3 towers over every other day on the board. A no-release-by-month-end contract is only about 4%.

85%

Sept. 3 implied odds

100%

ExploitBench score

91.5%

Cyber jailbreak refusals

Zero-days found in eval

OpenAI test comparison

Cyber jailbreak refusals

Astra
91.5%

GPT-5.6 Sol
59%

In OpenAI's tests, Astra refused far more disallowed cyber requests than GPT-5.6 Sol.

Planned access

Advanced cyber tools stay gated

Alpha testers

First access to advanced cyber workflows

→

Daybreak Blue

Defensive partners, including Cisco, Cloudflare, Palo Alto Networks

→

Broader public

Model "soon," with strongest cyber features still limited

What supporters see

Developers report staging signals in OpenAI's API, and OpenAI calls Astra its most aligned model yet, with 91.5% jailbreak refusals in its tests.

What critics flag

There is still no official date. Outside labs have not confirmed the cyber evals, and monitors may pause legitimate ChatGPT, Codex, and API work.

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