Breaking

Polymarket Opens Market Predicting the Top AI Model as of June 27

June 22, 2026 at 01:48 EDT

Foundation Models
Sales & Business

On June 22, Polymarket launched a new market, "Best AI model on June 27?", predicting whether a specific AI model will hold the top score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of June 27, 2026. Settlement is based on the Arena Score at lmarena.ai.

June 21, 2026 · Polymarket

Who's the Best AI Model on June 27?

A new prediction market asks which model tops the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at noon ET on June 27. After a U.S. export ban pulled Anthropic's world-leading Fable 5 offline, the crowd is overwhelmingly backing claude-opus-4-6-thinking.

93%

Probability on claude-opus-4-6-thinking

~$1,633

Total volume — modest for a newly opened market

~1 wk

Window until resolution at noon ET June 27

Where the odds sit — by option

93%

opus-4-6-
thinking

opus-4-7-
thinking

opus-4-6

fable-5

Other

Resolves on the top-ranked model in Text Arena (Overall, style control off).

How the favorite emerged

JUN 9

Claude Fable 5 launches — SOTA reasoning, 1M-token context, top of the class.

→

JUN 12

U.S. export control directive cites national-security risks; Anthropic pulls Fable 5 offline worldwide.

→

JUN 21

With Fable 5 absent, Opus 4-series (thinking mode) becomes the leading bet.

Edge holds

Pre-ban testing rated Fable 5 "smarter than GPT-5.5 and Opus 4.8." A company-level market still puts Anthropic ahead at 95–96% (~$16M volume).

The tension

Views split between national security and stifled innovation. Fable 5's price ran ~2× Opus 4.8 — $10 / $50 per million input / output tokens.

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