Despite taking office on a deregulatory promise, the Trump administration is said to be shaping a "shadow AI policy" that effectively steers the industry without formal legislation, using export controls, voluntary testing frameworks and procurement guidelines.
June 2 · The White House
America's "Shadow AI Policy": Deregulation in Public, Intervention in Private
An administration that publicly opposes AI regulation is quietly steering the industry through executive orders and targeted export controls — a de facto policy taking shape without any new law from Congress.
30days
Pre-release window for voluntary government cyber evaluation of frontier models
60days
Deadline for benchmark and framework design for covered frontier models
2
Anthropic models — Mythos 5 & Fable 5 — hit by export controls, flagged as jailbreak-exploitable
Case Study · The Anthropic Squeeze
Commerce Dept.applies export controls
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Foreign accessblocked entirely
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Anthropic suspendsaccess for ALL customers
"We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible." — and the company also faced parallel Pentagon blacklisting.
Two Models of Control
Trump Administration
Form: ad hoc intervention & administrative guidancePre-review: voluntary (licensing & preclearance banned)Tools: export controls, procurement, voluntary review
EU AI Act–style
Form: comprehensive legislationPre-review: includes legal obligationsTools: regulation based on risk tiers
The Core Tension
Industry's foremost concern isn't the rules — it's that there are no clear rules.
With AI safety legislation stalled in Congress ahead of the midterms, executive-driven policymaking leaves companies more exposed to personalities and politics. Next watch points: GSA data-protection rules for LLMs in government contracts, and the impact on procurement firms.
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