A new Bloomberg Economics analysis concludes that generative AI has yet to have a major impact on Britain's jobs market. The job losses often attributed to AI are more likely driven by macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates and slowing growth, with AI possibly being "wrongly blamed," the analysis suggests.
22 April 2026 · Centre for British Progress
No clear sign AI has displaced UK jobs — yet
Nearly three years into the generative-AI era, an analysis of 412 occupations finds no statistically significant employment gap between high- and low-exposure jobs. The catch: AI still touches only a sliver of work.
~40%
of large UK firms use AI tools
AI touches only a sliver of tasks
UK workers use AI on just 385 of the 18,429 O*NET tasks — about 2.1%. That narrow footprint is a key reason mass displacement hasn't appeared.
Augmentation, not replacement — the signals so far
Software sector productivity
0.8% → 3.8%
annual growth accelerated as coding tools spread
Software employment
−4.5%
in late 2025 — programmer & analyst roles still rising overall
Working hours edged up in high-exposure jobs; wage growth slowed, but the trend predates ChatGPT. Managerial and clerical roles declined.
The evidence diverges
Studies disagree on how exposed Britain really is.
Centre for British Progress
No significant employment gap between high and low exposure; no evidence of mass displacement.
Morgan Stanley
UK firms saw net employment fall 8% over 12 months due to AI — more than other countries.
McKinsey-related analysis
Job postings down 38% in high-exposure occupations — shrinking junior roles.
PwC AI Jobs Barometer
Cases of employment growth and productivity gains at high-exposure firms.
A Solow paradox for AI
Big claims, big spending — no clear signal yet
As with electricity, computers and the internet, the impact on productivity and jobs takes time to surface. Firms remain in the integration and reorganisation phase.
The "headquarters trap"
Britain's high share of finance, IT and professional roles could mean greater future exposure.
Watch the trend
No mass displacement now — but task coverage is rising and restructuring continues.
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