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Google and Cathay Pacific expand AI trial to cut aircraft contrail warming

September 7, 2026 at 04:25 EDT

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Foundation Models

Google and Cathay Pacific Airways said they are expanding an operational trial of AI-powered forecasts that help aircraft avoid climate-warming condensation trails, after more than 80 flights that followed avoidance routes showed an estimated 40% reduction in those trails’ warming impact.

Sep 7, 2026 · Google Research · Cathay Pacific

AI altitude tweaks vs. heat-trapping contrails

Cathay Pacific is Google’s first commercial airline partner in Asia for contrail avoidance, and the first to test it on ultra-long-haul flights. Flights that followed the AI routes cut estimated contrail warming by about 40%.

Key figures from the first operational trial

~40%

Estimated drop in contrail warming on avoidance flights

80+

Cathay flights that flew avoidance routes (100+ targeted)

>50%

Of trial reductions from the Hong Kong–Singapore corridor

~1/3

Share of aviation’s climate impact attributed to contrails

Why the corridor mattered

Hong Kong–Singapore vs. the rest of the trial

>50%

HK–Singapore share of reductions

<50%

All other trial routes combined

One busy, humid corridor delivered more than half the measured benefit — a reminder that avoidance is highly location-specific.

From forecast to cockpit

1 · Predict

AI, satellites, and weather mark humid, cold zones

→

2 · Plan

Dispatchers set slight altitude shifts before pushback

→

3 · Fly

EFF + in-flight Wi-Fi put live forecasts on the flight deck

What crews say works

Altitude changes sit inside existing safety limits and look like turbulence avoidance. Google says passengers should not notice, and forecasts sit next to normal EFF metrics.

What is still unproven

The 40% figure is a satellite estimate for flights that actually followed the routes. A larger second phase must test ultra-long-haul and trans-Pacific operations, and extra fuel on moved flights remains a trade-off from earlier trials.

Phase two widens the trial across Cathay’s Asian and trans-Pacific network, with Contrails.org helping evaluate whether avoidance scales beyond one corridor.

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